\t\t\t\t\t\t\t ![](\"http:\/\/lekolin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/4216-1.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t“Arap Bahar\u0131” sona ermi\u015ftir. Ortada
\n“devrim” yoktur. “Arap Ayaklanmalar\u0131” bitmi\u015f ya da
\nezilmi\u015ftir. Bu durumda, “Yeni Sykes-Picot”dan ziyade, gelecek, bir
\n“Ortado\u011fu Westphalia”s\u0131na daha uygun g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Arap Bahar\u0131 ifadesi Amerikan bas\u0131n\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirildi.
\nAmerikal\u0131lar, son y\u0131llarda eski Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan
\nb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 kitlesel kalk\u0131\u015fmalara nedense meyve, \u00e7i\u00e7ek, vs. gibisinden do\u011fay\u0131
\n\u00e7a\u011fr\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran s\u0131fatlarla niteleme yoluna gittiler. G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da ve Ukrayna\u2019da
\nyasemin, portakal devrimlerinden, 2005\u2019te Suriye askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131
\nterketmesine yol a\u00e7an geli\u015fmeler i\u00e7in L\u00fcbnan bayra\u011f\u0131ndaki sedir a\u011fac\u0131na
\ng\u00f6nderme yaparak, sedir devriminden s\u00f6z etmi\u015f olmalar\u0131 gibi. Oysa, bu \u00fclkelerin
\nhi\u00e7birinde kendileri yapt\u0131klar\u0131ndan b\u00f6yle s\u00f6z etmediler. Yani, akt\u00f6rler,
\nger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdiklerini Amerikan medyas\u0131 gibi nitelemedi.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin, \u201cSedir Devrimi nitelemesinin her g\u00fcn sat\u0131r sat\u0131r
\nyer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da tek bir L\u00fcbnanl\u0131n\u0131n a\u011fz\u0131ndan \u00fclkelerinde cereyan
\nedenden \u201cSedir Devrimi diye s\u00f6z edildi\u011fini duymad\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde de, Tunus\u2019ta bir seyyar sat\u0131c\u0131, Muhammed
\nBuazizi\u2019nin kendisini ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7aresizli\u011fe isyan duygusu i\u00e7inde yakmas\u0131yla
\nate\u015flenen 2010 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ate\u015flenen ve \u00f6zellikle Ocak 2011\u2019de M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da
\nzirveye vuran geli\u015fmeler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan \u201cArap Bahar\u0131 nitelemesi, Araplar
\ntaraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Amerikan medyas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle, Libya\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Suriye\u2019deki
\n\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarla i\u015fin i\u00e7ine kan girince, \u201cArap Bahar\u0131 ndan vazge\u00e7ip, sanki
\nmevsimler geriye do\u011fru yol alabilirmi\u015f gibi \u201cArap K\u0131\u015f\u0131 ndan s\u00f6z etmeye giri\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u201cArap Bahar\u0131 ndan hi\u00e7bir zaman s\u00f6z etmemi\u015f bulunan Araplar,
\nbunun yerine, \u201cDevrim (Arap\u00e7a Thawra) ya da \u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131 demeyi tercih
\nettiler.<\/p>\n
Tunus\u2019taki kat\u0131 ve \u00e7eyrek y\u00fczy\u0131ldan fazla s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, kimsenin
\nakl\u0131na bir-iki hafta i\u00e7inde y\u0131k\u0131labilece\u011fi gelmemi\u015f olan Zeynel Abidin Ali
\nrejiminin b\u00fcy\u00fck kitle g\u00f6sterilerinin patlak vermesi \u00fczerine \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ama en
\n\u00f6nemlisi, Arap D\u00fcnyas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck, en kalabal\u0131k, en \u00f6nemlisi \u201ctrendsetter
\nsay\u0131lan etkili \u00fclkesi M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Tunus\u2019u izleyerek, Ocak 2011\u2019in son haftas\u0131nda,
\nbelkemi\u011fini ba\u015fkent Kahire\u2019nin ortas\u0131ndaki Tahrir (Kurtulu\u015f) Meydan\u0131\u2019ndaki
\nb\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6sterilerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu s\u00fcrecin sonucunda, nispeten, kans\u0131z bi\u00e7imde
\nrejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u201cDevrim ve\u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131 nitelemelerini
\ndo\u011frular nitelikte g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Zaten, Libya\u2019da sars\u0131lmaktayd\u0131 ve 1969\u2019dan beri \u00fclkesine
\nh\u00fckmetmekte olan Muammer Kaddafi\u2019nin koltu\u011fu sallan\u0131yordu. Bir yandan da rejimi
\nsarsan geli\u015fmeler, Arabistan yar\u0131madas\u0131n\u0131n en u\u00e7 noktas\u0131na, Yemen\u2019e ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f
\ndi\u011fer yandan da K\u00f6rfez\u2019de, uzun bir k\u00f6pr\u00fcyle Suudi Arabistan\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir
\nada olan ve n\u00fcfus \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu \u0130ran etkisine a\u00e7\u0131k \u015eii olmakla birlikte, Suudi
\ng\u00f6lgesi alt\u0131ndaki bir S\u00fcnni hanedan y\u00f6netimindeki Bahreyn\u2019e de uzanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ve, 15 Mart 2011 tarihinde Suriye\u2019nin \u00dcrd\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na biti\u015fik
\nDeraa kentinde de g\u00f6steriler patlak verince ve hemen ard\u0131ndan ba\u015fkent \u015eam\u2019\u0131n
\nmerkezindeki Emevi Camii\u2019nin \u00e7evresinde protestocu topluluklar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131
\ni\u015fitilince,\u201cdevrim in, nihayet Kuzey Afrika\u2019dan, yani \u201cMagrip ten gelip, \u201cMa\u015fr\u0131k a,
\nOrtado\u011fu\u2019nun kalbine de gelip dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi uyand\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar, bir \u201cdevrim ya\u015fanmakta oldu\u011fu ya da Bat\u0131
\ntarihindeki 1848 devrimleri analojisine imk\u00e2n veren t\u00fcrden, tarihin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc
\nde\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini uyand\u0131ran \u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131 na tan\u0131k olundu\u011fu
\nalg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n, sol-Arap milliyet\u00e7isi
\nd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce ak\u0131mlar\u0131na mensup kimileri, pan-Arabizm\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck ismi Nas\u0131r d\u00f6neminin
\netkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcren unsurlar, olan biteni tam tersine, arkas\u0131nda \u201cBat\u0131
\nemperyalizmi nin bulundu\u011fu, \u201cikinci Sykes-Picot senaryolar\u0131 yla a\u00e7\u0131klama yoluna
\ngittiler.<\/p>\n
Bunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, 1960\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n unutulmaz ismi,
\nEl-Ahram\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fyazar\u0131, Nas\u0131r\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, eski Enformasyon Bakan\u0131, \u00fcnl\u00fc gazeteci
\nve yazar Muhammed Hasaneyn Heykel geliyordu.<\/p>\n
Geleneksel Arap d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kal\u0131b\u0131na g\u00f6re, Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck
\nalt\u00fcst olu\u015flar\u0131, Bat\u0131l\u0131 d\u0131\u015f unsurun senaryolar\u0131 ve oyun planlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda
\nanlamak ve yorumlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildi ve yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olurdu.<\/p>\n
Kendi pay\u0131ma, esas olarak, 2011 Ocak ay\u0131nda geli\u015fen ve
\nM\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da zirvesine varan geli\u015fmelerden b\u00fcy\u00fck heyecan duydum ve ya\u015fananlar\u0131,
\nBirinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda d\u00f6nemin b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7leri, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa
\ntaraf\u0131ndan par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f olan Araplar\u0131n, kendi kaderlerine ellerine alarak tarih
\nsahnesine girmeleri olarak g\u00f6rmeyi se\u00e7tim.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgenin ve halklar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci bir b\u00fcy\u00fck par\u00e7alanmay\u0131
\nya\u015fayacaklar\u0131 anlam\u0131ndaki \u201cYeni Sykes-Picot iddialar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru bulmad\u0131m ki,
\nbunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7ekenler aras\u0131nda, yak\u0131n dostum, L\u00fcbnanl\u0131 lider Velid Cunblat
\nda bulunuyordu ve Sykes-Picot\u2019nun 100. y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc olan 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda, Suriye\u2019de
\nya\u015fananlara bakarak, daha da kuvvetli bir kanaatle bulunmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yani, 2011 ile birlikte \u201cdevrim ya da \u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131
\nya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeydim.<\/p>\n
2016\u2019n\u0131n ilk ay\u0131n\u0131 arkam\u0131zda b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fu d\u00f6nemde, yani \u201cArap
\nBahar\u0131 , \u201cdevrim ya da \u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131 , her ne s\u0131fatla ifade edilecekse
\nedilsin, Kuzey Afrika ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fananlar ile vard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z nokta nedir?
\nNereye do\u011fru yol almaktay\u0131z?<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya dengelerini etkileyecek \u00e7apta bir uluslararas\u0131 vek\u00e2let
\nsava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sahnesi haline gelmi\u015f ve rejimi ayakta kalan Suriye\u2019nin siyasi
\nmanzaras\u0131, bu arada 2013\u2019te Temmuz\u2019unda M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da askeri darbe sonucu General
\nAbdulfettah Sisi\u2019nin iktidara el koymas\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda hileli oldu\u011fu
\ns\u00f6ylenemeyecek bir se\u00e7imle cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilerek iktidar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirmesi,
\nLibya\u2019n\u0131n par\u00e7alanmas\u0131, Yemen\u2019in Suudi Arabistan-\u0130ran rekabetini yans\u0131tacak bir
\n\u015fekilde Suudi sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hedefi olmas\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra Irak
\nba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin gelece\u011finin belirsizli\u011fe s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi, bana,
\nolanlar\u0131n bir \u201cdevrim ya da \u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131 olarak nitelenemeyece\u011fi
\nh\u00fckm\u00fcn\u00fc verdiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cYeni Sykes-Picot nun isabetli bir niteleme ve de\u011ferlendirme
\nolaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin itiraz\u0131m s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ortada bir \u201cdevrim in bulunmamas\u0131, \u201cArap
\nAyaklanmalar\u0131 ndan s\u00f6z etmenin do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u201cYeni Sykes-Picot ihtimalinin
\nge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funu bana s\u00f6yletebilmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
\u201cArap Bahar\u0131 de\u011fil, \u201cdevrim de\u011fil, \u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131
\nde\u011fil \u00f6yleyse, olanlara nas\u0131l bir isim bulmal\u0131y\u0131z?<\/p>\n
Galiba, en do\u011frusu bir isim bulmaktan bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in
\nvazge\u00e7meliyiz. \u015euras\u0131 olduk\u00e7a kesin g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor ki, Ortado\u011fu, ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir
\ntarihi ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemini ya\u015f\u0131yor ve bu ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminin ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fini,
\nnerede, ne \u015fekilde sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kestirebilmek, \u015fu g\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn
\nde\u011fil.<\/p>\n
B\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00f6lge adeta bir \u201ctarih \u015fantiyesi konumunda tarih,
\nb\u00f6lgede yeniden in\u015fa ediliyor. Ne var ki, bu in\u015faat\u0131n\u201cmimari plan\u0131 n\u0131
\ng\u00f6remiyoruz ve muhtemelen yok da. Bu olgu, ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na, ya\u015fananlar\u0131, son
\nderece kaotik k\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
Her biri tek ba\u015f\u0131na ve ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na b\u00f6lge tarihinde yeni
\nsayfa a\u00e7ma potansiyeline sahip bir dizi geli\u015fme, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak ya da
\nbirbirinden k\u0131sa aral\u0131klarla birbirlerine eklenerek, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar. Ve, i\u00e7i\u00e7e
\nge\u00e7erek b\u00f6lgenin m\u00fcthi\u015f kaos manzaras\u0131n\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131k bir hale soktular.<\/p>\n
\u201cArap Bahar\u0131 diye nitelenmi\u015f olan Kuzey Afrika\u2019n\u0131n iki
\n\u00fclkesinde \u00f6nce Tunus\u2019ta ve hemen sonras\u0131nda M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da patlak veren ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n
\nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc halka olarak izledi\u011fi geli\u015fmelerin sonucundaki rejim
\nde\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin asl\u0131nda \u201csiyasal \u0130sl\u00e2m \u0131n S\u00fcnn\u00ee versiyonu olan M\u00fcsl\u00fcman
\nKarde\u015fler\u2019i iktidara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa, \u015eii karakterli \u0130ran \u0130slam
\nDevrimi\u2019nin tam tersi y\u00f6nden gelen ve ters karaktere sahip bir \u201cS\u00fcnni \u0130sl\u00e2m
\nDevrimi ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fundan s\u00f6z edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Tunus\u2019ta, Tunus\u2019un M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler\u2019ine tekab\u00fcl eden an-Nahda\u2019n\u0131n
\n(R\u00f6nesans-Yeniden Do\u011fu\u015f) iktidara gelmesi, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da M\u00fcbarek\u2019in devrilmesinin
\nhemen ard\u0131ndan ordunun g\u00f6zetimindeki ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen parlamento ve
\ncumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerini M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler\u2019in kazanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, Libya\u2019da
\nKaddafi sonras\u0131 kurulan ilk h\u00fck\u00fcmette M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler\u2019in Libya kolunun
\na\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Suriye\u2019de olaylar\u0131n patlak vermesinden birka\u00e7 ay sonra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin
\nhimayesinde olu\u015fturan muhalefet kurulu\u015fu Suriye Ulusal Meclisi\u2019nin belkemi\u011fini
\nSuriye M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fleri\u2019nin olu\u015fturmu\u015f olmas\u0131, yukar\u0131daki de\u011ferlendirmeye
\ndo\u011fruluyor.<\/p>\n
Ne var ki, M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da iktidar\u0131
\nkaybettiler. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n dram\u0131, sadece 2013 Temmuz\u2019unda General Sisi\u2019nin askeri
\ndarbesini ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 de\u011fildir. M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131 y\u00f6netmeyi
\nbeceremediler. 2011 Ocak ay\u0131nda Tahrir\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen kitlelerin iki misli
\nb\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kitleler, sokaklara ve Tahrir\u2019e d\u00f6k\u00fcld\u00fc. M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler,
\nM\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da yenildi ve y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Libya par\u00e7aland\u0131. \u00dclkenin baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde, I\u015e\u0130D paraleli
\nSelefi-Cihad\u00ee gruplar iktidar\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdi. Libya\u2019da bir M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler
\niktidar\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil, zaten b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u00e7inde bir Libya s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019de rejime kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler, \u201cS\u00fcnni
\nmuhalefet in bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D, el-Kaide\u2019nin Suriye kolu olan an-Nusra, ve \u00e7e\u015fitli
\nfarkl\u0131 ili\u015fki yap\u0131lar\u0131na sahip Ahrar e\u015f-\u015eam, vs. gibi Selefi-Cihadi g\u00fc\u00e7lere ve
\n\u00f6rg\u00fctlere kapt\u0131rd\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Suriye, uluslararas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u2013ba\u015fta Rusya- do\u011frudan
\ndahil oldu\u011fu, b\u00f6lgenin b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sahas\u0131nda, yine do\u011frudan yer
\nald\u0131\u011f\u0131 amans\u0131z bir sava\u015fla parampar\u00e7a durumda. \u201cArap Bahar\u0131 n\u0131 da, \u201cdevrim i
\nde, \u201cArap Ayaklanmalar\u0131 n\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcms\u00fcz k\u0131lan, Suriye\u2019nin kendisi oldu.<\/p>\n
Suriye ile birlikte, Suriye sava\u015f alan\u0131 esas olmak \u00fczere,
\nb\u00f6lgede ya\u015fanan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n 17. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131nda, 1618-1648 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan
\nve Westphalia D\u00fczeni ile noktalanan Otuz Y\u0131l Sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cOrtado\u011fu
\nversiyonu dur.<\/p>\n
Mezhep sava\u015flar\u0131 en amans\u0131z haliyle ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin
\ndevreye girmesiyle d\u00fcnya satran\u00e7 tahtas\u0131nda yeni uluslararas\u0131 dengeyi ve g\u00fc\u00e7
\nili\u015fkilerini belirleyecek cinsten bir m\u00fccadele, merkez alan\u0131 Suriye topraklar\u0131
\nolmak \u00fczere, b\u00f6lge ekseninde cereyan ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cArap Bahar\u0131 sona ermi\u015ftir. Ortada \u201cdevrim yoktur. \u201cArap
\nAyaklanmalar\u0131 bitmi\u015f ya da ezilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bu durumda, \u201cYeni Sykes-Picot dan ziyade, gelecek, bir
\n\u201cOrtado\u011fu Westphalia s\u0131na daha uygun g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Tabii, sahnedeki uluslararas\u0131
\ng\u00fc\u00e7lerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve aktiviteleri nedeniyle, Ortado\u011fu, bir \u201cOrtado\u011fu
\nWestphalia\u2019s\u0131 ndan da \u00f6teye, genel anlamda bir \u201cYeni Westphalia ile
\nnoktalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ne zaman, nas\u0131l?<\/strong><\/p>\n Bilmiyorum. Bunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 ancak, belki on y\u0131llar sonra, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, yapmakta olduklar\u0131n\u0131 ve yapmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye, \u201cArap Bahar\u0131 denilen 2011 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerin Tarihi payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, eski co\u011frafyas\u0131 ili\u015fkileri yeniden 2011\u2019de b\u00f6lge stat\u00fckosu bozulunca, stat\u00fckonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi Tunus\u2019ta ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da \u201cde\u011fi\u015fim i destekledi ve hatta Bununla birlikte, Esad rejimini destekleyememe hali, rejimin T\u00fcrkiye, Suriye\u2019de \u201crevizyonist olman\u0131n da \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek, \u0130ngilizlerin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcc\u00fc olduklar\u0131 s\u0131rada, bu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck hatas\u0131, iktidar sahiplerinin, \u201cArap AKP iktidar\u0131, lider Tayyip Erdo\u011fan ve d\u0131\u015f politika ideologu \u201cB\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olma iddias\u0131ndaki ve kendini \u00f6yle saymaya De\u011ferinin ne ve ne kadar oldu\u011fu tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131, ama \u201cyaln\u0131zl\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu duruma d\u00fc\u015fmesinin en \u00f6nemli nedenlerinin Suriye\u2019deki geli\u015fmelerin y\u00f6n\u00fc do\u011fru okunsayd\u0131, en \u00f6nemli T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iktidar,\u00a0 Oysa, \u201cK\u00fcrt fobisi ve ademi-merkeziyet\u00e7i her ihtimale Yani, Suriye\u2019de 2011 sonbahar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak, -o tarihe Geldi\u011fimiz noktada, T\u00fcrkiye, kendi i\u00e7inde PKK\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, hem rejimin kalbi say\u0131lan Lazkiye\u2019ye do\u011fru Suriye politikas\u0131, tek kelimeyle ifl\u00e2st\u0131r. Suriye, E\u011fer bir beyaz sayfa a\u00e7mak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsayd\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l bir Ama soruya illa cevap aran\u0131yorsa, en kestirme ve en do\u011fru O takdirde, her \u015fey, \u00e7ok fark ederdi.<\/p>\n \u00d6yle bir cevap, bundan sonra ne yapmal\u0131d\u0131r diye bir soru Yani, \u015fu s\u0131rada ne yap\u0131yorsa, ne yapmaktaysa, tam tersini Cengiz \u00c7andar-Radikal<\/strong><\/p>\n K\u00fcrdistan Stratejik www.lekolin.com – \u00a0<\/p>\n 0<\/p>\n 21<\/p>\n TR<\/p>\n \t :” ” <\/p>\n \t :”” <\/p>\n \t ” “,” ” <\/p>\n \t :” ” <\/p>\n \t<\/p>\n
\ngeli\u015fmeler ya\u015fand\u0131ktan sonra tarih\u00e7iler taraf\u0131ndan net bir \u015fekilde
\nverilebilecek.<\/p>\n
\ngerekenleri bu geni\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7eve i\u00e7inden de\u011ferlendirmek isabetli ve do\u011fru olur.<\/p>\n
\nba\u015flamas\u0131na kadar \u201ckom\u015fularla s\u0131f\u0131r sorun politikas\u0131 diye ifade edilen
\nform\u00fclasyona g\u00f6re, Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya \u201cyumu\u015fak g\u00fc\u00e7 projeksiyonu ile girmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan
\nve bu y\u00f6nde hayli ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 y\u00f6n kat etmekte olan bir \u00fclkeydi.<\/p>\n
\ncanland\u0131rmakta ve etkili bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ortaya koymaktayd\u0131. AKP iktidar\u0131n\u0131n 2011\u2019e
\nkadar olan d\u00f6nemine damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuran bu politika, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinde \u201crejim
\nde\u011fi\u015fiklikleri ni \u00f6ng\u00f6ren yani uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler terminolojisiyle \u201crevizyonist
\nbir politika de\u011fildi. Tersine, \u201cstat\u00fcko \u00f6ncelikli bir politikayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\nimk\u00e2n\u0131 ortadan kalk\u0131nca, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin politikas\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fmek zorundayd\u0131 ve
\nde\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\n\u201csponsor oldu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u201crevizyonist \u00fclke konumuna kayd\u0131. Bu nedenle,
\nSuriye konusunda \u2013ki, Suriye, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu kap\u0131s\u0131 ve en uzun s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n
\n(911 kilometre) bulundu\u011fu \u00fclke- olaylar patlak verdikten sonra, o g\u00fcne kadar \u00e7ok
\ns\u0131k\u0131 f\u0131k\u0131 ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirmi\u015f oldu\u011fu Esad rejimini destekleyemezdi.<\/p>\n
\ntahmin edilen k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde devrilmeyece\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olduktan sonra ve
\nen \u00f6nemlisi ABD\u2019nin Obama\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 gere\u011fi, Suriye\u2019de kesinlikle askeri rol
\noynamayaca\u011f\u0131 besbelli hale geldikten itibaren, sanki bu unsurlar olmam\u0131\u015f ve
\nyokmu\u015f gibi devam ettirilmesi zorunlu bir hal de de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n
\nyanl\u0131\u015fta \u0131srar eden ve d\u0131\u015f politikada en b\u00fcy\u00fck kozu olan\u201claik \u00fclke konumunu
\nterkederek \u201cmezhep\u00e7i davran\u0131\u015flara kayan ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kendisini b\u00f6lgesel ve
\nuluslararas\u0131 alanda giderek zay\u0131flatan ve yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131ran bir \u00fclke g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne
\ngirdi.<\/p>\n
\ng\u00fcc\u00fcn projeksiyonu anlam\u0131nda 19. Y\u00fczy\u0131l sonunda benimsedikleri \u201cSplendid
\nIsolation yani \u201cMuhte\u015fem Tecrit politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f bir terc\u00fcme ve hatal\u0131 bir
\nalg\u0131lama sonucunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z politikas\u0131 \u201cde\u011ferli yaln\u0131zl\u0131k diye
\nsa\u00e7ma sapan bir etiket ile anlamland\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\nBahar\u0131 diye nitelenen geli\u015fmeler dizisine bak\u0131p, kendileriyle ayn\u0131 ideolojik
\ndalga boyundaki M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler’in Kuzey Afrika Arap \u00fclkelerinde iktidara gelmesini
\nkal\u0131c\u0131 bir olgu olarak alg\u0131lamas\u0131, Suriye\u2019de de bunun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131
\nd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek, Suriye politikas\u0131na bu yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n vermesine izin vermesi
\nyani \u201cdar mezhep\u00e7i politika ya savrulmalar\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
\nAhmet Davuto\u011flu arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler iktidarlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden T\u00fcrkiye
\ni\u00e7in \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7 projeksiyonu yapmaya, kendi anlad\u0131klar\u0131 haliyle eski \u201cOsmanl\u0131
\ng\u00fcc\u00fc n\u00fc Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ihya etmeye kalkt\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
\ndevam eden bir \u00fclkenin, \u0130srail\u2019de, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da, Suriye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isiz kalmas\u0131,
\nBa\u011fdat ve Tahran \u00fczerinde n\u00fcfuzunun bulunmamas\u0131 ve geldi\u011fi noktay\u0131 \u201cde\u011ferli
\nyaln\u0131zl\u0131k diye me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgedeki T\u00fcrkiye foto\u011fraf\u0131n\u0131
\nkendili\u011finden net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\nhali tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z bir T\u00fcrkiye var Ortado\u011fu\u2019da. \u0130smi, Suriye\u2019de kazanma \u015fans\u0131
\nolmayan ve son g\u00fcnlerde kaybettikleri daha belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir dizi
\nSelefi\/Cihadi \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc Suudi Arabistan ve Kata rile desteklemeye s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmi\u015f,
\nb\u00f6lge politikas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda ismi Suudi Arabistan ve Katar ile an\u0131lan
\nbir T\u00fcrkiye, Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun bug\u00fcnlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcnen T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n
\nba\u015f\u0131nda, K\u00fcrt olgusuyla bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc ba\u015fedememi\u015f olmas\u0131 geliyor. 2011\u2019den sonra
\nKuzey Afrika ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler Suriye\u2019ye gelip dayan\u0131nca,
\nSuriye\u2019de merkezi otoritenin yani rejimin egemen g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fclkenin her k\u00f6\u015fesine
\nyayamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde g\u00f6rmek gerekiyordu.<\/p>\n
\nb\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinin yerle\u015fik bulundu\u011fu T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na biti\u015fik b\u00f6lgelerde, Suriye
\nK\u00fcrtlerinin kendi kendilerini y\u00f6netme a\u015famas\u0131na ge\u00e7ecekleri ve bu a\u015famada
\nPYD\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilirdi.<\/p>\n
\n<\/span>PKK ile y\u00fcr\u00fctmekte oldu\u011fu \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm s\u00fcreci nin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ortamdan
\n\u00f6zellikle yararlanarak, PYD ile \u00f6zel ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirebilir ve kendi g\u00fcvenlik
\nkayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bu \u015fekilde giderme yolunu se\u00e7ebilirdi.<\/p>\n
\nili\u015fkin bilinen devlet alerjisi a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131 ve iktidar\u0131n
\n\u201c\u00fcmmet\u00e7i-\u0130slamc\u0131-mezhep\u00e7i ideolojik yan\u0131yla birle\u015ferek, Suriye K\u00fcrtlerine
\nkar\u015f\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le \u00fcst\u00fc kapal\u0131 ili\u015fkilere gidecek kadar yanl\u0131\u015f politikalar\u0131n i\u00e7ine
\ngirildi.<\/p>\n
\nkadar rejim ile temas kanallar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutulmu\u015ftu- T\u00fcrkiye, Suriye\u2019de sadece
\nyanl\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131, yanl\u0131\u015f \u00fczerine yanl\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\ntekrar sava\u015fa tutu\u015fmu\u015f iken, PYD\u2019yi de \u201cter\u00f6rist g\u00f6rmektedir ve \u00f6yle il\u00e2n
\netmi\u015ftir ama o PYD, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ve en \u00f6nemli NATO m\u00fcttefiki olan ABD
\nile askeri i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7indedir Rusya ile hem askeri ve hem de siyasi temaslara
\nsahiptir.<\/p>\n
\nHatay vilayetinin Yaylada\u011f il\u00e7esinin hemen g\u00fcneyinde ve en \u00f6nemli tarihi ve
\njeopolitik ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ifada eden Halep\u2019in kendi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na kadar olan
\nkuzeyinde etkisi ve lojistik ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 hemen hemen s\u0131f\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ya da
\ns\u0131f\u0131rlanmak \u00fczeredir.<\/p>\n
\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu kap\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re, t\u00fcm b\u00f6lge politikas\u0131n\u0131 da
\nSuriye\u2019deki ifl\u00e2s \u00fczerinden okumak gerekir.<\/p>\n
\npolitika izlemeliydi sorusu sorulabilir. Ama ne yaz\u0131k ki, tarihi geriye
\n\u00e7evirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. 2011\u2019den bu yana ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f olanlar\u0131, Suriye ba\u015fta olmak
\n\u00fczere b\u00f6lgede hareket halinde bulunan yeni dinamikleri, Suriye\u2019de olu\u015fmakta
\nolan yeni g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini, Suriye\u2019deki Rusya askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ile Rusya
\naras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin 24 Kas\u0131m 2015 g\u00fcn\u00fc bir Rus sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n
\nd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden sonra izledi\u011fi seyri kaydetmeden bir beyaz sayfa a\u00e7mak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn
\nde\u011fil.<\/p>\n
\ncevap, \u015fu olabilir: T\u00fcrkiye, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n yaz sonundan itibaren, Suriye\u2019de ne
\nyapt\u0131ysa, tam tersini yapmal\u0131yd\u0131!<\/p>\n
\nsoruldu\u011fu takdirde, bu sorunun da do\u011fru cevab\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
\nyapmas\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n
\nAra\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi<\/strong><\/p>\n
\nwww.lekolin.org – www.lekolin.net \u2013 www.lekolin.info – www.navendalekolin.com<\/strong><\/p>\n