<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adli cinayetlerin sebebi toplumsal sorunlar olur. Y\u00f6nlendireni ya da hukuk diliyle bir azmettireni olur. Siyasi cinayetlerinse belirleyici sebebi siyasi dengeler, ili\u015fkiler ve ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar olur. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde \u0130ran \u0130slam cumhuriyetinin Ortado\u011fu’daki siyasetinde, askeri politikalar\u0131nda belirleyici rol oynayan Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta Trump ABD\u2019si taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en 2020 Kas\u0131m\u0131nda da \u0130ran n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli ismi Fahrizade Tahran\u2019da yine bir suikastla \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Suikast\u0131n ilkini ABD do\u011frudan, ikincisini de Netanyahu\u2019nun \u0130srail\u2019i dolayl\u0131 \u00fcslendi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n Ortado\u011fu’daki siyasi ve askeri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Bu nedenle ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 do\u011frudan hedeflemesi i\u00e7in g\u00fcc\u00fcnden daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 gerekiyor. \u0130kincisi \u0130ran’\u0131 enterne ederken yerine do\u011facak bo\u015flu\u011fu dolduracak benzer bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Her iki ihtiya\u00e7, b\u00f6lgede \u0130ran ile olas\u0131 sava\u015fta yer al\u0131nca kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 riskleri g\u00f6ze alacak kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck emperyalist emelleri ve ABD, \u0130srail ile a\u00e7\u0131k gizli ili\u015fkileri ve anla\u015fmalar\u0131 olacak bir devletle ancak kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir. Bana g\u00f6re bu g\u00fc\u00e7 Erdo\u011fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sidir. Ben bunu Trump\u2019\u0131n Erdo\u011fan’a Suriye ve Irak\u2019ta verdi\u011fi destekten \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrk Devletini Irak\u2019ta ve Suriye’de desteklemek, \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmak K\u00fcrtler \u00fczerinden \u00e7\u0131kar sa\u011flatmak ancak \u0130ran’\u0131 etkisizle\u015ftirmek ve ona alternatif yaratmak i\u00e7in olabilir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bir yere not edelim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump ABD\u2019sinin \u0130srail i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6t\u00fcrmez. ABD\u2019nin sosyal, siyasal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel nedenlerden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc \u0130ran’\u0131 Arap devletleriyle barajlamak mevcut durumda pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Arap devletlerini g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz b\u0131rak\u0131p \u0130srail\u2019e ve d\u00fcnyadaki ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n denetimine vermek, ABD stratejisine daha uygun, \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na daha fazla hizmet eder. Bunu da yukar\u0131daki notun yan\u0131na koyal\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O zaman ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in b\u00f6lgemizdeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck operasyonu say\u0131lan \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131nda bu iki devlete arka \u00e7\u0131kacak ve \u0130ran’\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde do\u011facak bo\u015flu\u011fu dolduracak tek g\u00fc\u00e7 Erdo\u011fan politikalar\u0131na kilitlenmi\u015f T\u00fcrkiye kalm\u0131\u015f oluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Birinci verim, yukar\u0131da da belirtti\u011fim gibi Trump ABD\u2019sinin TC\u2019yi Suriye de ve Irak\u2019ta desteklemesidir. Bunu hangi verilere dayanarak ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc de \u015f\u00f6yle belirtebilirim. Dikkat edelim, 2019 Ekiminde T\u00fcrk devletinin kuzey do\u011fu Suriye b\u00f6lgesinde G\u0131respi ve Ser\u00eakani i\u015fgallerine ABD halk\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck tepki g\u00f6stermi\u015f, ABD i\u00e7inde ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 demokratlar\u0131n \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir grup Trump\u2019\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerine ihanet etmekle su\u00e7lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Trump\u2019\u0131 K\u00fcrtlere ihanetle su\u00e7layan cumhuriyet\u00e7iler de olmu\u015ftu. Peki o zaman Trump ABD\u2019nin i\u00e7erde ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da prestijini, g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini yerle bir eden bu ad\u0131m\u0131 neden atm\u0131\u015f olabilirdi? Bu prestij ve g\u00fcven kayb\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ze alacak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u0131m\u0131 ne olabilirdi? Bana g\u00f6re bu Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019in \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve sonras\u0131nda \u0130ran bir hata yaparsa ba\u015flayacak sava\u015fta T\u00fcrk devletini yan\u0131na almak i\u00e7indi. S\u00fcleymani \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde AKP cenah\u0131nda sevin\u00e7lerini sosyal medya hesaplar\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klayan AKP\u2019liler ve o cenahtan insanlar oldu. Yine ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir bilgiye g\u00f6re S\u00fcleymani cinayetinden sonra AKP\u2019li y\u00f6neticiler kendi aralar\u0131nda \u2018en b\u00fcy\u00fck belalar\u0131n birinden kurtulduk, fazla belli etmeyin\u2019 manas\u0131nda konu\u015fmalar da olmu\u015f. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere 6 kas\u0131m 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda da Trump \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fm\u0131yorlar diye PKK y\u00f6netiminden \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fi hakk\u0131nda \u2018tutuklama-\u00f6ld\u00fcrme\u2019 karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu karar \u0130ran’a d\u00f6n\u00fck sava\u015fta K\u00fcrtleri kullanma, K\u00fcrtler kendini kulland\u0131rtmazsa da \u00f6ld\u00fcrme, yerine ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7ler ikame etme anlam\u0131na geliyor. Suriye’de T\u00fcrk devletine K\u00fcrtleri ezdirme, K\u00fcrtler \u00fczerinden taviz vermenin bir yan\u0131n\u0131n da \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 TC\u2019yi kullanmak ama\u00e7l\u0131 oldu\u011funu bu karar kadar a\u00e7\u0131k ortaya koyan ba\u015fka bir veri daha olmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130kinci verim ise biraz daha \u00f6zel gibi. Bilindi\u011fi gibi \u0130ran \u0130slam devriminin \u0130ran’a bir kazan\u0131m\u0131 da genelde M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar, \u00f6zelde de b\u00f6lge M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde anti emperyalist oldu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Erdo\u011fan ile birlikte bu alg\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u2018one minute\u2019 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan da biliyoruz. Bu nedenle, ABD\u2019nin ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k deste\u011fine ra\u011fmen Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n i\u00e7erde s\u00fcrekli \u2018anti emperyalist\u2019 diye sunulmas\u0131 nedensiz de\u011fildir. Bunu da ideolojik politik haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak okumak geremektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in Irak\u2019\u0131nda Kaz\u0131mi iktidar\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc emareler var. Bunlardan biri de Erdo\u011fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sinin ABD ve AB taraf\u0131ndan ku\u015fat\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ambargoyla y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015ftirilmek istendi\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye’de ciddi ekonomik krizin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde Kaz\u0131mi\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gitmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Her iki g\u00fcc\u00fcn ortak noktas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. Bu nedenle Kaz\u0131mi\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 protokol \u00e7ok \u015fey anlat\u0131yordu. Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n saray\u0131ndaki sofra ise T\u00fcrklerin Araplara ve KDP\u2019li K\u00fcrtlere nas\u0131l bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ele veriyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc verim, ABD\u2019nin durup dururken \u2018Irak, T\u00fcrkiye ve Ba\u015fur K\u00fcrdistan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti birlikte \u015eengal sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zmelidir\u2019 demesi oldu. Bu olduk\u00e7a ilgin\u00e7 bir geli\u015fmeydi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, ABD\u2019nin, Kaz\u0131mi y\u00f6netimine ve KDP\u2019ye, TC\u2019yi Irak sorunlar\u0131na dahil et demektir. \u0130kincisi T\u00fcrkiye’ye Irak\u2019ta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ol arkanday\u0131z demektir. Bu s\u00f6zler s\u00f6ylendi\u011finde Trump ABD se\u00e7imlerini kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Trump ABD\u2019sinin Erdo\u011fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sini \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fta kullanmak istedi\u011finin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verisi K\u00fcrtler \u00fczerinden TC\u2019ye verdi\u011fi destektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc K\u00fcrtler tan\u0131nmayan bir halkt\u0131r. M\u00fccadeleleri ter\u00f6rist g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. ABD ve m\u00fcttefikleri, 20.yy boyunca Ortado\u011fu’daki kirli planlar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fcnde K\u00fcrtleri k\u0131l\u0131f olarak kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bilindi\u011fi gibi K\u00fcrtler kullan\u0131larak i\u015flenen su\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6rten K\u00fcrt \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fc de bir gurup Barzani\u2019nin denetimindeki KDP olmu\u015ftur. Olmaya da devam etmektedir. KDP y\u00f6netimindeki Barzanilerin Irak\u2019ta, TC\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 tutum almas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli yerel deste\u011fi vererek, \u0130ran’\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk emperyalist emellerine me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmelerle de sabittir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump ve Erdo\u011fan aras\u0131nda gizli anla\u015fmalar\u0131 olmasayd\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye Karaba\u011f sava\u015f\u0131na girmezdi diyorum. Bunu da Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ime giderken ABD\u2019deki Ermeni oylar\u0131n\u0131 ve Ermeni lobisiyle T\u00fcrkiye konusunda ortakla\u015fabilen Yunan lobisinin tepkisini g\u00f6ze alarak sessiz kalmas\u0131ndan anlayabiliyoruz. Demek ki se\u00e7imde kaybetme riskini g\u00f6ze almas\u0131na neden olabilecek bir neden ortada vard\u0131. Bunun da Fahrizade suikast\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyorum. Ve hem bilgilerime hem de analizime dayanarak farkl\u0131 bir iddia daha ileri s\u00fcrmek istiyorum; Bana g\u00f6re Fahrizade suikast\u0131 ya da \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 daha etkili ba\u015fka bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ABD se\u00e7imlerinden \u00f6nce yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131racak kadar etkili bir sald\u0131r\u0131 olabilir. B\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olsayd\u0131 Trump se\u00e7imleri kazanacakt\u0131. Ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Karaba\u011f\u2019a gidi\u015finin as\u0131l amac\u0131n\u0131n da Azeriler eliyle \u0130ran’\u0131 cihadistler yoluyla kuzeyden ku\u015fatmak oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131. Trump kazansayd\u0131 KDP, TC ve Irak birlikte PKK’ye kar\u015f\u0131 ABD deste\u011fiyle sava\u015facak ve TC Sidekan \u00fczerinden \u0130ran’a dayanacakt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcnde TC\u2019nin neden DA\u0130\u015e art\u0131klar\u0131yla ortak hareket etti\u011fi de ger\u00e7ek manas\u0131na kavu\u015fmu\u015f olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Toplamda \u015funu belirtmek istiyorum; Erdo\u011fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019si olmasa, ABD ve \u0130srail \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ld\u00fcremez. En az\u0131ndan bunu, bu kadar pervas\u0131zca yapamazd\u0131. Kaz\u0131mi ve KDP olmasa, TC\u2019ye Irak \u00fczerinden alan a\u00e7\u0131lmazd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2021 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli iki cinayetini ele almak istedim. Tabi ki bu bir analiz yaz\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Bu iki cinayetle nereye var\u0131lmak istendi\u011fini ve elde edilecek sonu\u00e7lardan kimin pay\u0131na neyin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini yorumlayarak olas\u0131 failleri, azmettirenleri ve yard\u0131m ve yatakl\u0131k edenlerin kimler olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermek istiyoruz. Bunun ilerde daha net ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na da inan\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mehmet G\u00d6REN<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u00fcrdistan Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Adli cinayetlerin sebebi toplumsal sorunlar olur. Y\u00f6nlendireni ya da hukuk diliyle bir azmettireni olur. Siyasi cinayetlerinse belirleyici sebebi siyasi dengeler, ili\u015fkiler ve ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar olur. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde \u0130ran \u0130slam cumhuriyetinin Ortado\u011fu’daki siyasetinde, askeri politikalar\u0131nda belirleyici rol oynayan Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta Trump ABD\u2019si taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en 2020 Kas\u0131m\u0131nda da \u0130ran n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli ismi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":12357,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override":[{"single_blog_custom":"","sidebar":"","second_sidebar":"","share_position":"","share_float_style":"","post_date_format":"","post_date_format_custom":"","post_reading_time_wpm":"","zoom_button_out_step":"1","zoom_button_in_step":"1","number_popup_post":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"","single_post_gallery_size":""}],"trending_post_position":"","trending_post_label":"","sponsored_post_label":"","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":""},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[2826,3024,3025,3023,34],"class_list":["post-12356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politik-analiz","tag-abd","tag-fahrizade","tag-iran-2","tag-suleymani","tag-turkiye"],"acf":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12356"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12356\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12358,"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12356\/revisions\/12358"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12357"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lekolin.org\/ku\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}